Ukraine finds new role as protector of US, Gulf allies amid Iran war 

The United States, which stopped providing military and financial assistance to Ukraine under President Donald Trump, has asked for Kyiv’s assistance in protecting its bases from Iranian retaliatory strikes in the Gulf.

Ukraine’s head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, made the request public on March 6.

Two days later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine would send military experts to the Gulf.

On March 9, Zelenskyy also dispatched chief negotiator Rustem Umerov to sell Ukrainian interceptor drones to Gulf states.

Zelenskyy said the US and more than 10 European and Middle Eastern countries had already reached out to Ukraine, “requesting our support for their defensive capabilities”.

Ukraine had a vested interest in answering that call, said Zelenskyy.

“Stability is important for us, as well. Those now seeking Ukraine’s help must continue to assist our own defence,” he said.

Ukraine has struck drone co-production agreements with a number of European allies. It has proposed the same to the US.

“Everyone now sees that there is no alternative to this approach,” he said.

The Washington Post reported on March 6 that Russia had been helping Iran target US assets and allies in the Gulf, citing three unnamed US officials. Washington perceives Iran as an enemy, but not Russia. Moscow’s collusion could help Ukraine to change that perception and realign Washington with Kyiv and its European allies.

Ukraine had other vested interests in helping the Gulf states.

While Iran manages to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to tankers, a large proportion of the world’s oil is kept off-market, raising prices.

To mitigate the effects on allies, the Trump administration lifted its restrictions on purchases of Russian crude for the month to April 4, a windfall worth billions to Russian oil companies and President Vladimir Putin’s war chest.

The Financial Times estimated Moscow had already received a windfall of $1.3bn to $1.9bn in taxes from oil exports.

Benchmark Brent crude has risen by about $20 since the war in the Gulf began, which can generate an estimated $3.3bn for the Russian treasury over a month, according to one estimate.

Indian imports of Russian oil had risen by about 50 percent, and on March 13, 30 tankers carrying 19 million barrels of Russian crude were reported to be awaiting buyers in the Asian market.

There was a further incentive for Ukraine.

Gulf states were reportedly using expensive Patriot interceptors to bring down drones headed their way, because they lacked cheaper alternatives.

“Only other cheap drones can counter a large number of cheap drones, not expensive missiles,” wrote Kovalenko on Telegram.

“Why are we using Patriots against Shahed drones?” asked General Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe. “There are technologies out there that Ukrainians have been developing that are better for counter-drone. You don’t want to waste a Patriot interceptor against a Shahed drone.”

Ukraine has run short of Patriot interceptors, which are effective against the ballistic missiles Russia launches against its infrastructure every week, and has asked countries that have interceptors to sell or donate them.

Chicago University history professor John Mearsheimer summed up the Russian advantages from the war on Iran, which the US and Israel launched on February 28.

“This war is wonderful news for the Russians. First of all, it means the US is wasting precious assets in this fight that it might otherwise allow the Europeans to buy to give the Ukrainians,” Mearsheimer said. “I think there is no question this is hurting Ukrainians on the battlefield … demand for Russian oil and gas is going to go up.”

“Ukrainian experts will work on the ground to support real efforts to stabilise the situation and restore, in particular, safe navigation in the region,” said Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s defence minister.

On March 4, the fifth day of the war on Iran, Ukraine said Iran had already fired 800 missiles and 1,400 drones against Gulf states.

Ukraine has experience in defending against swarms of drones.

In the past week, it said it downed 90 percent of the 1,250 drones Russia launched, and more than half of the 34 missiles. Many of those drones are Shaheds – the same Iranian design that Iran has been flying into its Gulf neighbours.

“Our goal is to identify 100 percent of air threats in real time and intercept at least 95 percent of missiles and drones,” said Fedorov, who is in conversation with the governments of Qatar, the UAE, Jordan and Bahrain.

Fedorov also revealed that Ukrainian drone operators are now responsible for 96 percent of Russian casualties.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) had obtained Russian documents recording casualties of 1.3 million for the entire war, 62 percent of whom were deaths – a higher percentage than Ukraine had previously assumed.

Ukraine is now automating feedback from its drones in order to better determine which types are most effective.

Mission Control, the command system, will automatically generate reports on the effectiveness of each drone mission. It will relieve front-line units of paper reports and give commanders “real-time operational tracking”, said the ministry. “This is the first time that procurement decisions are being automatically generated based on real combat data,” said Fedorov.

Ukraine has also been effective in striking Russian defence industries.

On March 10, it used Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles to strike the Kremniy El microchip factory in the city of Bryansk – reportedly using a drone to better guide the missiles for the first time.

Five missiles reportedly struck the facility.

Kremniy El claims it is the largest manufacturer of chips for Russia’s military, which are used in the cruise missiles Russia uses to attack Ukraine.