Sweden heads to the polls: What’s at stake in the knife-edge election? 

Stockholm, Sweden – On Sunday, Swedes will vote in a knife-edge general election that could see it either usher in a left-wing coalition or take a step even further to the right and welcome the Sweden Democrats, a party with neo-Nazi roots, into government for the first time.

Once a political pariah, the party has become the greatest force on the right and has already helped shape government policy from beyond the cabinet. Now, Moderate Party leader and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson wants to bring it formally into power.

Opposing them is a centre-left bloc led by Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson, which has been leading in the polls, although the gap has been narrowing in recent weeks.

Sweden’s four left-bloc parties now have support of between 49.3 and 50.8 percent, according to the surveys conducted by the Ipsos, Demoskop and Indikator Opinion polling firms, while support for the coalition government and the Sweden Democrats stands at 47.6 to 49 percent, according to polls released by Swedish Radio and dailies Aftonbladet and DN.

Here is what you need to know:

How the election process works

Advance voting has been running since August 26.

Sunday, however, is the official election day when polling stations will open at 8am (06:00 GMT) and close at 8pm (18:00 GMT).

Swedes are voting in three elections on the same day: one for members of the national parliament, one for the regional council and one for the municipal council.

How are Sweden’s political parties distributed?

Sweden’s politics run in two blocs.

On the right are the governing Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, as well as the Sweden Democrats, who have propped up the government from outside since all four parties signed an agreement in 2022.

On the left are the Social Democrats, the Left Party and the Greens, with the Centre Party a possible fourth.

Swedish politics has traditionally been built around coalition-building, compromise and minority governments rather than one party winning outright.

Governments do not need a majority of seats to take office, but they won’t survive in parliament unless smaller parties form agreements within blocs.

What are the key issues for this election?

A number of issues are on voters’ minds ahead of this election.

Immigration

Immigration remains one of the defining issues in Swedish politics, and a major reason the Sweden Democrats have gone from political pariah to kingmakers.

Analysts say the 2015 refugee crisis, when an estimated 1.3 million asylum seekers arrived in Europe, handed the party a major opportunity.

In Sweden alone, 163,000 arrived – the highest annual figure in the country’s history and the largest per capita intake in the European Union.

According to Sweden’s annual SOM (society, opinion and media) survey, immigration became the single most important issue for 53 percent of Swedish voters almost overnight that year.

As a result, Sweden has dramatically tightened its migration policy since the crisis, with asylum numbers now far below their peak.

The government has introduced tougher residency and citizenship rules and, this year, began offering migrants with residency permits about $36,000 as an incentive to leave.

The Sweden Democrats want to go further, while the centre left has also moved towards a more restrictive position than it once held.

The argument is now less about whether migration should be reduced and more about what integration should look like.

However, some of the most hardline new migration policies introduced have gone “too far” even for right-wing voters, Zina al-Dewany, a political commentator and editorial writer for the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet, told Al Jazeera.

The government’s focus on repatriation and hubris, driven by the upswell of support for tougher measures in the country, led to overreach and a spate of scandals that dominated Swedish headlines this year, she said.

This largely centred around a wave of deportation orders issued to teenagers who had grown up in Sweden and were being told to leave on turning 18 while their parents stayed – a practice the government ultimately suspended in March and moved to reform in June.

Foreign policy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed Sweden’s security policy, helping drive its historic decision to join NATO in 2024.

Sweden has provided about $16.4bn in military and civilian support to Ukraine since 2022.

There is unusually broad agreement across the political spectrum that Sweden should continue backing Ukraine, with debate focused less on whether to support Ukraine than on how much Sweden should spend and how far Europe should go in strengthening its own defence.

On Palestine, the debate is very different.

The current right-wing government does not regard Israel’s conduct in Gaza as genocide and has not joined South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

However, it has pushed for EU sanctions against “extremist” settlers and ministers, and in April proposed extra tariffs and export certificates on settlement products.

If the Sweden Democrats were to get into government, it would represent the most pro-Israel views in the bloc.

Its motions this session have called for moving the Swedish embassy to Jerusalem and ending all Swedish aid to Palestinians.

Its leader, Jimmie Akesson, said in January that, if it were up to him, he would absolutely withdraw Sweden’s recognition of Palestine.

The left bloc is aligned on several key issues, including resuming funding to UNRWA, which has been accused by Israel of having links with Hamas, but which provides the majority of humanitarian support to Palestinians.

The Left Party and Green Party have called for Sweden to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ.

“If the left bloc comes to power, you will see a trade boycott of Israel, more money to UNRWA, and we want more funding to the ICC,” Anfal Mahdi, an opposition councillor in Malmo for the Left Party, told Al Jazeera, referring to the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2024 on suspicion of committing war crimes.

Law and order

Gang violence has become a focus of Sweden’s political debate over the past decade.

With a population of 10.6 million, Sweden has one of Europe’s highest rates of deadly gun violence. The government has responded with tougher sentences, more police resources and measures targeting criminal networks.

There are signs the crackdown is working: shootings and deaths have fallen sharply this year compared with 2022.

But friction remains about how to deal with the issue, with the right saying the progress proves its approach is working, while the left argues that prevention, schools and social services are equally important.

The economy

After years of rising inflation and a prolonged economic downturn, the cost of living is a major concern for voters.

The parties are competing over how to put more money in people’s pockets – through tax cuts, more benefits or levels of public spending.

The right has emphasised lower taxes and incentives to work, while the centre-left is promising investment in welfare and household finances.

Welfare and healthcare

Healthcare consistently ranks among the issues Swedish voters value most.

That makes it politically important even though much of the responsibility for providing it lies with Sweden’s regions rather than the national government.

The parties are debating waiting times, staffing and access to care, as well as how Sweden should fund its welfare state.

The centre left is campaigning heavily on investment in healthcare, schools and other public services, while the right argues that stronger incentives to work and economic growth are needed to sustain them.