Map of dominance: Why Iran can’t afford to give up Hormuz control 

A new map featuring two red lines stretching beyond the Strait of Hormuz has become the latest symbol of the escalating war of attrition between Iran and the US.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Monday released a map marking an expanded maritime area of control to include lengthy sections of the United Arab Emirates’s coastline. In the west, a line stretches between the westernmost tip of Iran’s Qeshm Island to the UAE’s Umm al Quwain ‌emirate, while in the east, a second line joins Iran’s Mount Mobarak ⁠and the UAE’s Fujairah.

The announcement came after US President Donald Trump launched a new effort to open the vital energy chokepoint – which has been largely closed since the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28 – by sending the navy to escort stranded tankers through the strait, in a campaign dubbed “Project Freedom”.

In a further escalation, the UAE on Monday reported drone and missile attacks, including one that caused a fire at a major energy hub in Fujairah, marking the first such incidents in a Gulf state since a US-Iran ceasefire on April 8. The UAE blamed Iran for the attacks. Though Tehran has not officially confirmed the strike, it appeared to acknowledge on Tuesday that it was behind the strikes, while saying that the US and its actions in the region were responsible.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a social media post on Tuesday that “the continuation of the current situation is unbearable for the United States, while we have not even begun yet.”

Behind the veneer of confidence, however, analysts say Iran is increasingly reliant on control of the Strait of Hormuz for vital leverage in its ongoing war with the US and Israel, formally only on pause under the ceasefire.

And that leverage is not something Iran can afford to give up easily, they say.

‘Strategic equaliser’

By disrupting maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a passageway for approximately a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilisers, Iran has been able to impose economic costs on the US, as well as the rest of the world. That, say experts, has given it negotiating heft as it tries to push back against US demands, such as Washington’s insistence that Tehran effectively end its nuclear programme.

The resulting ripple effects have affected energy markets, maritime transport and global supply chains, as tanker traffic was brought down from an average of 129 in February to a virtual standstill.

Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, professor of economics of the Middle East at Marburg University’s Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS), described Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz as a “strategic equaliser.”

“It allows Iran to signal that pressure on Iran will not remain confined to Iran,” Farzanegan, who also serves as a research fellow at the Hamburg Institute for Advanced Study (HIAS), told Al Jazeera.

“Iran cannot match US naval and air power symmetrically, but it has geography on its side,” he continued. “Hormuz is narrow, congested, and economically vital. In such a space, Iran does not need large-scale confrontation to impose costs. Mines, missiles, drones, fast boats, electronic disruption, and the threat of selective targeting can make transit risky even without a total closure.”

In effect, Iran does not need to defeat the US Navy to change the economic calculus of war.

“It only needs to make insurers, shippers, and energy traders understand that military pressure on Iran will carry costs for global markets. That uncertainty alone can raise oil and LNG prices, increase shipping costs, and transmit the conflict into inflation, food security, and financial markets,” Farzanegan said.

Iran’s primary requirement to deter oil tankers or LNG carriers from transiting can be achieved with nearly any explosive projectile. Throughout the conflict, Iran has shown that it possesses a sophisticated arsenal that includes one-way attack drones, fast attack craft armed with antiship cruise missiles, rocket launchers, and even antitank guided missiles that could potentially be launched in large numbers, including from underground coastal facilities.

But Iran’s disruptions come at a high cost. The US has imposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports and shipping since April 13, limiting Iran’s ability to export oil, import essential goods and keep foreign-exchange inflows. Prices have surged, and millions of jobs have been lost or paused amid a near-total internet shutdown imposed by the authorities in Tehran.

“Hormuz is probably Iran’s key leverage point at this stage, although it is a dangerous asset,” Farzanegan said. “It gives Iran bargaining power precisely because using it fully would damage everyone.”

Regional power balance

The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared under strain on Tuesday after the UAE accused Iran of attacking the country’s Fujairah oil refinery, which exports more than 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined fuels, about 1.7 percent of daily world demand.

The attack on Monday came after the US military said two US merchant ships had made it through the strait with the support of Navy guided-missile destroyers. Iran denied any crossings, despite shipping company Maersk confirming that the US-flagged Alliance Fairfax had exited the Gulf under US military escort.

Additionally, the US military claimed its forces in the region destroyed six small Iranian boats, which Tehran also denied. Instead, Iran claimed, the US had killed five civilians in its attacks on Iranian vessels.

Muhanad Seloom, assistant professor of international politics and security at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, said the attack on Fujairah was a reminder that Iran does not need to directly attack US merchant ships in the Hormuz Strait — it could also strike Gulf states to keep up the economic pressure on the global markets.

“'[Iran is] trying to tell GCC countries that if the US attacks us, we will destroy all your infrastructure’ and cause an economic crash,” Seloom told Al Jazeera, referring to Gulf Cooperation Council members, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain.

Over the course of the war, at least 6,413 missiles and drones were launched at seven Arab countries in the region, with the majority directed at the UAE. Abu Dhabi has deepened its strategic partnership with Israel – an ally of the US in its war against Iran – after normalising ties through the Abraham Accords in 2020. The UAE also quit the OPEC and OPEC+ oil cartels last month, which are effectively led by Saudi Arabia.

According to Seloom, Iran is tapping into this regional dynamic.

“The bigger question [now] is what does this mean for GCC countries and how long will they practise their strategic patience?” Seloom said, referring to the policy of restraint adopted so far.

“At some point, they may see this as an existential threat,” he warned.