Israel policy looms large over US elections in Illinois amid Iran war 

Washington, DC – Pro-Israel groups in the United States are spending millions of dollars in elections to assert their influence over the rising anger towards Israeli policies.

A set of primaries in the Midwestern state of Illinois on Tuesday represents an early test for the strength of pro-Israel politics in the US amid the countries’ joint war on Iran.

The Chicago area Democratic primaries, where groups linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) have emerged as some of the largest spenders, come as Israel’s popularity in the US hits a historic low.

As AIPAC’s brand becomes increasingly rejected by Democrats, newly formed political action committees (PACs) with generic names that share vendors with the pro-Israel lobby group have been spending heavily against progressives in Illinois.

Several so-called dark-money groups that do not have to reveal their funders until after the vote have endorsed the same candidates as AIPAC.

According to an investigation by Chicago’s public radio WBEZ, AIPAC and its donors have spent $13.7m on the primaries, including through funds funnelled to shadow PACs.

Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for the progressive group Justice Democrats, said AIPAC is using “covert shell” groups because it is aware of the unpopularity of Israel, especially after the “live-streamed genocide” in Gaza.

He noted that AIPAC’s election arm is called the United Democracy Project, a name that does not mention Israel.

“AIPAC has always relied on voters not knowing the whole story,” Andrabi told Al Jazeera.

“AIPAC has become such a toxic force in the Democratic Party that voters now, when they see a candidate backed by AIPAC, they reject them simply for that support.”

A source close to AIPAC told Jewish Insider this week that the group is focused on defeating six candidates who are critical of Israel across four contests in Illinois.

The Kat Abughazaleh race

In one of the most closely watched contests, Kat Abughazaleh, a 26-year-old progressive activist with a large online following, is locked in a crowded race for the open seat vacated by retiring Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky.

Abughazaleh, who has openly called Israel’s war on Gaza a genocide, is running against several candidates for the safe Democratic seat.

Her most viable opponents are Daniel Biss, the mayor of the Chicago suburb of Evanston, who is critical of some Israeli policies and backed by the liberal Zionist group J Street, and State Senator Laura Fine, seen as the pro-Israel candidate in the race.

An AIPAC-linked group initially attacked Biss to prop up Fine.

But fearing another miscalculation, as in the recent race in New Jersey, where attacks on the centrist candidate who is mildly critical of Israel helped an all-out progressive activist win, pro-Israel groups have focused on Abughazaleh in recent days.

And in a bizarre twist, a group linked to AIPAC ran an advertisement last week supporting Bushra Amiwala, a long-shot candidate who is fiercely opposed to US aid to Israel, in an apparent effort to siphon off votes from Abughazaleh and possibly Biss.

Amiwala was quick to disavow the advertisement. “This is an attempt to smear my name by putting my name next to pro-genocide, pro-war… billionaires,” she said.

AIPAC did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment by the time of publication.

Andrabi from Justice Democrats said that AIPAC’s tactics show the degree to which the lobbying group has become a “toxic” brand for Democratic voters.

Justice Democrats has endorsed Abughazaleh in the race, but Andrabi said that even if Biss wins, it would be a defeat for AIPAC.

A recent Public Policy Polling survey suggested that Abughazaleh is a close second to Biss, at 20 percent to 24 percent, respectively, with Fine behind them at 14 percent.

In a Democratic primary in a neighbouring district, progressive candidate Junaid Ahmed has also been making inroads and closing the gap with the pro-Israel candidate, former Congresswoman Melissa Bean.

While Ahmed has focused his campaign on domestic issues, he has highlighted AIPAC’s interference in the race.

“It’s dark money vs democracy, and tomorrow we will send AIPAC packing,” Ahmed wrote in a social media post on Monday.

‘AIPAC is losing the long-term battle’

Other competitive races include a primary contest to fill the seat of Representative Robin Kelly, who is now running for the Senate.

The race pits Jesse Jackson Jr, son of the late civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, against several candidates, including Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, backed by pro-Israel groups, and State Senator Robert Peters, who has been critical of AIPAC.

To fill the seat of retiring Democratic Congressman Danny Davis, another crowded contest is taking place on Tuesday.

According to Jewish Insider, AIPAC’s priority is to defeat activist Kina Collins in that race. The other candidates include Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin and State Representative LaShawn Ford.

A primary election will also take place to determine the Democratic and Republican nominees for the Senate, as incumbent Dick Durbin is set to leave Congress at the end of his term.

On the Democratic side, where the winner will likely replace Durbin, Congresswoman Kelly, who has also accused Israel of genocide, is facing Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton and Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi – both strong Israel supporters.

Andrabi said that no matter the results on Tuesday, polls show AIPAC’s shrinking influence.

He also accused the pro-Israel lobby group of “moving the goal posts” from electing its favoured candidates to blocking progressive hopefuls.

“We want to win all these races without a doubt. But I think it is very clear that AIPAC is losing the long-term battle for the future of this party,” Andrabi told Al Jazeera.

Although the majority of Democrats in Congress are pro-Israel, an NBC poll published on Monday suggests that only 17 percent of the party’s voters sympathise more with Israelis than Palestinians.

Tuesday’s elections pose an early test to voters’ attitudes towards the war on Iran, whose impact is starting to bite Americans at the petrol pump.

While most Democratic candidates have voiced opposition to the US attacks on Iran without congressional approval, Andrabi said the war will become a major issue in Tuesday’s primaries and beyond.

“This Democratic base does not want any more forever wars. They do not want one led by Donald Trump. They do not want a war with Iran, and they do not want a war that we are waging for the sake of Israel or AIPAC,” he said.