Houthi attacks on gov’t forces hint that a major battle in Yemen is brewing 

Sanaa, Yemen – Houthi missiles and drones struck military locations inside Yemen on Thursday, leaving at least 30 government soldiers dead and 15 others injured in the first such attack in years.

Targeting government military camps and gatherings in Hadramout and Marib, the attacks marked a major escalation in the war between the Houthis and the government.

Yaya Saree, the Houthi military spokesperson, claimed in a broadcast statement that the attacks killed “hundreds” and “destroyed a large number of camps and depots”.

He alleged that the strikes were launched after Houthi forces “detected a massive Saudi military mobilisation” with the aim of an escalation.

The two sides have been at war since the Houthis and their allies captured the capital, Sanaa, in September 2014, with a Saudi-led coalition intervening in March 2015 on the side of the government.

Fierce fighting has subsided in recent years, but there has been a consolidation of government and some southern forces since the United Arab Emirates left Yemen in 2025. The Houthis’ gradual engagement in the regional war between the US and Israel against Iran, the group’s key ally, included an announcement of a naval blockade on Saudi ports and attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait last month.

The Houthis are now on high alert for any military developments, Saree said, as pro-government forces appear to be preparing to retaliate for Thursday’s attacks and the renewal of Yemen’s largely dormant war.

Neither peace nor war

The strikes on government forces in Marib and Hadramout mark a turning point in Yemen’s conflict, with analysts telling Al Jazeera that Yemen appears to be edging closer to a wider conflict.

Abdul Rahman Saleh, 34, who lives in Sanaa, said the war has now become tangible to the people living in Yemen. “It is no longer a potential threat. It has become a reality. We have repeatedly heard explosions over the past days in Sanaa. We watch the figures of deaths and injuries on the news. Parties boast of their deadly attacks on their media outlets,” he told Al Jazeera.

“It reminds us of the pre-2022 truce. Each party is hungry for revenge. As a civilian, I feel it would take a miracle to stop this war now.”

Fuad Mussed, a Yemeni researcher focusing on political and military affairs, believes the recent Houthi attacks on government military camps are proof that the Houthi group has taken a final decision on entering an open confrontation with its opponents.

“The Houthis’ message is clear: opting for escalation both inside Yemen and beyond,” Mussed told Al Jazeera. “As they expand their attacks internally, they continue targeting ships in the Red Sea and sites in Saudi Arabia. So, it can be said that the state of neither peace nor war has ended.”

Although the war in Yemen has largely halted since April 2022, when the rival sides reached a United Nations-sponsored truce, both sides have expressed a desire for a decisive military battle in recent months.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said that the Houthis’ expansion of cross-border attacks on government forces means the threat of all-out war between the two sides is no longer far-fetched.

“Although there is still a chance for both sides to return to a policy of containment, the problem is that each new escalatory move makes that much more difficult. If this pattern continues and the Houthis increase their attacks, then the risk of a new round of war increases significantly,” Nagi told Al Jazeera.

“Based on what we are seeing today, the indicators pointing toward renewed conflict are stronger than those pointing toward de-escalation.”

‘War is a priority’

Sheikh Othman Majali, a member of the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council, said there can be no prospect of peace, security, stability, development, coexistence or national partnership as long as the project of “the terrorist Houthi militia” continues to threaten Yemen and the region.

“This can only be achieved by confronting and toppling the militia, and by halting the harm and evil it inflicts upon our people and our region,” Majali told the government-run Yemen TV channel.

Any talk about peace in Yemen is irrelevant today, said Saddam Al-Huraibi, a Yemeni political commentator, and the Houthis’ attack on government soldiers on Thursday is “an explicit message that war is a priority” for the group.

“Yemenis have been waiting for the Houthis and the Yemeni government to reach a peace deal or implement a peace roadmap for years. Now the Houthis have opened a real war, which shatters all peace prospects,” he told Al Jazeera.

“They have used the years-long peace talks to accumulate and create weapons nonstop. This has made them prepared for confronting local adversaries and capable of launching attacks as far as Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is not easy to persuade them to abandon the path to war.”

Al-Huraibi said he believes that both the international community and Saudi Arabia have given the Houthis too much time to agree to peace proposals. Houthi officials say the presence of any Saudi-linked Yemeni militias or military units outside the Sanaa authorities’ control is intolerable.

A lack of response by the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia following recent Houthi escalations could be interpreted as a sign of weakness, he said.

“Counting silence on Houthi attacks against Yemeni forces or Saudi facilities as strategic patience is nonsense. If this stance continues, it points to the powerlessness of the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia, and this will rob them of popular trust,” Al-Huraibi argued.

The Marib battle

Marib is once again emerging as the focal point of the conflict with fatal clashes breaking out on the front lines there in recent days. Today, control of the north-central province could be a life-and-death battle for the Houthis, Adel Dashela, a researcher at Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“Based on today’s escalation and the attacks on government camps in Hadramout and Marib, it is evident that the Houthi group is heading toward a major military escalation targeting the oil and gas regions in Marib,” Dashela said.

“All indications suggest that a ground war between government forces and the Houthi group is imminent, barring a breakthrough in the crisis—a scenario that appears unlikely at present.”

The Houthi group said in a statement on Thursday that it would not “tolerate” any Saudi military presence inside Yemen’s borders and that it has a “legitimate right to confront any hostile moves that threaten its sovereignty and security”.

The Houthis may hold an advantage in missile capabilities, said Dashela, but the magnitude of violence would be tremendous if a major war with the government erupts.

“A full-scale eruption across all battlefronts would make it difficult for the group to contend with government forces. Consequently, should such a war break out, it would not resemble previous conflicts; rather, it would be far bloodier,” Dashela said.

Room for restraint narrows

As the Houthis ready themselves for war, Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government have prioritised de-escalation over a military response, despite some calibrated attacks against the group.

“Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government still appear committed to a policy of containment, and it is possible they are testing this political approach to its limits,” Nagi said.

“The question is how long they can sustain that strategy. That remains unclear, especially as they continue to strengthen their position by building alliances and reinforcing military units along the front lines.”

Should the current pattern of escalation continue, the pressure on both Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government to respond more forcefully will grow, Nagi added.

“Whether that means limited military action or a broader shift in strategy remains to be seen, but the room for continued restraint is becoming narrow.”