Do Israelis feel any safer now than they did on October 6, 2023? 

Israel’s upcoming general election coincides with the third anniversary of the October 7, 2023 attacks, and the issues that concern voters relate, directly or indirectly, to the wars this event triggered. There is ultra-Orthodox anger about conscription, an economy affected by conflict, and questions of culpability for the Hamas-led assault.

Security issues have dominated Israeli public discourse for the past three years since the genocidal war on Gaza began, during which Israel has killed more than 73,000 Palestinians.

The war has also seen Israel exchange strikes with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, bomb neighbouring Syria and Lebanon, occupy their territories, and join the United States in launching at least two major attacks on Iran, widely perceived as the country’s main nemesis.

For a public still shaken by the events of October 2023, accompanied by a chorus of public figures warning of Israel’s imminent destruction, there has barely been a day when Israelis have not been reminded that their country is engaged in conflict. Israeli politicians, hungry for votes, have been eager to push this issue to the forefront of their campaigning.

Ayala Panievsky, a lecturer in politics and journalism at City St George’s, University of London and the author of The New Censorship, said national security has always been a primary concern for Israeli voters, and will remain so in this election, with other issues usually taking second place.

“Even when certain parties tried to shift the dial and centre on the economy, or any other issue, it didn’t work. It is too existential in a country entangled in war and conflict, and even stronger now, following the trauma of October 7,” Panievsky told Al Jazeera.

“To this day, Israelis do not feel safe from future attacks by Hamas or Hezbollah, or a nuclear threat from Iran. None of these fronts ended in a win for Israel. Despite Trump’s and Netanyahu’s big promises, none of these threats was eliminated.”

Ghosts in the machine

Despite anger across the globe over the genocide in Gaza and unilateral strikes on regional states, many believe Israel has never been more secure.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed since the 1990s that Iran was on the brink of achieving nuclear weapons. Today, some analysts believe that Iran’s economy and military are hugely depleted and are entirely preoccupied with its conflict with the US.

Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been ousted, Hezbollah is struggling to hold out against Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, while Hamas’s military capabilities have been severely diminished. The Houthis in Yemen, while making some significant gains on the Red Sea coast, are now entirely focused on fighting government forces and firing rockets at Saudi cities rather than Israeli ones.

Some analysts point out that while these groups still exist, and in some cases are more powerful, they are now embroiled in domestic concerns or managing their own survival rather than planning attacks on Israel.

“An objective military assessment would indicate that, overall, Israel is safer after almost three years of war,” Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, said. “Hamas is beaten, though not destroyed; the same with Hezbollah, while dealing with Iran is done mainly by the United States. There are forward buffer zones in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.”

But despite these apparent gains, it seems that Israelis feel more insecure than before October 7, 2023, a day that highlighted that the security and intelligence services, which for generations had been the pride of the Israeli political establishment, are in fact fallible.

An even greater threat lies closer to home. An increase in Israeli military operations since October 2023 and a more emboldened and violent settler movement have made the occupied West Bank a tinderbox.

“[In the] West Bank, Israel lost control over the settlers who provoke the Palestinians on a daily basis. I can see a third Palestinian Intifada on the horizon. When it starts, it will be difficult to stop,” Bregman said.

Political threats

The two main frontrunners in the election – Netanyahu and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot – continue to frame Israel as simultaneously victorious against its enemies and under threat from them.

In July, Netanyahu hinted at a “forever wars” scenario, despite his repeated boasts of Israeli military successes since October 2023.

“It’s never over. If you want to live in the Middle East – and in the world – you must be very strong,” he said.

Earlier this week, Netanyahu claimed his leadership had rewritten the political geography of the Middle East. But he also framed this as an existential battle for Israel’s survival and that he had “saved the State of Israel from destruction”.

In the heat of a bitterly contested election, few of Israel’s opposition figures have been eager to correct the “threat” narrative Netanyahu has promoted. Some claim that Hamas is rearming and preparing to strike at Israel once again, or call for new attacks on Iran to temper Hezbollah’s resistance to Israeli encroachment in Lebanon’s south.

Lev Grinberg, a professor of sociology at Ben Gurion University, told Al Jazeera that what is being debated in this election are the security and diplomatic failings over the past three years.

“The question of security or insecurity is a political question, not a question of Israel’s military capacities. Israeli society is very deeply divided between the present Government coalition and those that are against it,” he said.

There has been broad media coverage over reports that Netanyahu had received intelligence from the United Arab Emirates before the October 2023 Hamas-led attack, which has been strongly denied by both parties.

Netanyahu has also been criticised for his refusal to hold an independent inquiry into his own failings before October 7, and his longstanding strategy of finances entering Gaza.

It is a high-stakes election for both parties, with the prime minister likely fearful that losing would strengthen the corruption case against him, while the opposition will be concerned about an emboldened Netanyahu if he does win.

“After the approaching elections, the losing camp will feel very insecure. There already is an atmosphere of terror [for] the opposition,” Grinberg said.