New pressures keep northern sugar industry in crisis

Despite gains this season, production risks for 2026-2027 northern sugar crop mount, as global shocks erode cane farmers’ returns.

ORANGE WALK, Fri. May 15, 2026

   Officials declared the northern sugar industry in serious crisis last year due to the Fusarium outbreak and a range of pests. Now, with just weeks left in the 2025–2026 crop season, the sector is holding steady on production targets, but the outlook for the next crop is grim. New pressures have emerged, and Marcos Osorio, Chairman of the Sugar Industry Control Board (SICB), warns that global shocks, rising input costs, and delayed field interventions for crop preparation (husbandry) for the next season could drive production down by as much as 15 percent. He explained that farmers lack cash flow, and urged the associations that have Fairtrade funds to invest directly in helping farmers implement full husbandry practices, not just field cleaning. He is concerned that if production falls to around 500,000 tons, it will not be viable for the mill to operate.

   Delivery remains on schedule, with the sugar cane production estimate of 850,000 tons for the current crop season expected to be met when the season concludes in the first or second week of June. Weather conditions have been favourable for harvesting, and cane quality has improved considerably, going from a ton of cane per ton of sugar ratio (TC/TS) of 11.2 last crop to 10.3 this season and still improving. Last year’s sugar cane production ended at 884,000 metric tons, with 79,000 tons of sugar produced. Osorio says that despite the reduced cane production this year, sugar output is expected to be better. He credited the husbandry and agronomic interventions carried out by the farmers themselves.

   Osorio told the Amandala that the Fusarium fungus is now under control in fields that were treated. “We are seeing this crop a marked improvement in cane quality. Farmers are reporting between 20 to 25 percent increase in yields per acre in those acres where the full fusarium package was implemented,” he said.

   Osorio also highlighted the role of the government in helping to stabilize the current season. The first program saw the government provide half a million dollars in material for farmers who could afford the $75 per acre required for application. Under that initiative, 2,150 acres received the treatment. The second program saw the application of a fungicide in over 32,000 acres, and was fully subsidized by the government with BZ$2.5 million. The treated acreage represented just over 50% of the total acres harvested last crop.

   But, while that is a bright spot—along with farmers benefiting by an estimated $3.18 per ton from the increase in the price of sugar on the local market—Osorio cautioned that the gains could be short‑lived.He noted that husbandry has not been conducted even for the fields harvested in January, and “the ratoon fields are not looking good.” Although the government has committed $12 million for ratoon field maintenance, and an additional $8 million through the restructuring of the Climate Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture Project (CRESAP), funded via the World Bank, procurement delays have slowed the rollout. So far, materials have been received for 10,000 acres, but application cannot start until all the procurement processes have been completed. “I’m afraid that it’s already a bit late,” he said

   The situation is further compounded by rising fuel and fertilizer prices, driven by the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict. The increases are squeezing farmers’ already thin margins. Although cane farmers receive a government fuel subsidy, diesel prices have surged at the pumps. Osorio explained that while the subsidy normally increases with acquisition costs, the government is reducing its excise tax on fuel, which means that farmers are receiving a reduced subsidy. When diesel first spiked in March, the subsidy went from $3.51 to $3.32, and it now stands at $3.19.

   As a result of the increase in fuel costs, harvest group leaders have increased their delivery costs by 50 cents, $1, $2, and in some cases as much as $2.50 per ton.  “That means a farmer who was paying $34 per ton for harvesting and transport could now be paying $36.50,” Osorio said.

   Fertilizer prices have also surged. Farmers have seen an increase of about $12 per bag of complete blend fertilizer. In the case of nitrogen, that has shot up by $15 per bag. With farmers receiving $42 per ton of cane in their first payment, a cost of $36 or $38 per ton – in some cases – leaves them with almost nothing. In the latter case, a farmer would stay with only $4 plus the $3.19 from the fuel subsidy. Loan commitments further erode their income. Osorio explained that farmers typically sign a $10 per ton deduction on their first payment. In the example used, Osorio says that farmers would already be short $3 per ton to meet those bank obligations. That means they are left with no liquidity to purchase fertilizers or carry out any field maintenance—and it will be another five weeks until they receive their second payment.

   Separately, Osorio pointed to the emergence of new pests. “We are seeing new pests that we have not seen or that was not of economic importance in the industry,” he mentioned. He also noted that farmers are not giving the required attention to weed management, which is becoming a growing crisis. He highlighted the aggressive Johnson grass, which can reach severe infestation levels within two to three years and significantly reduce cane production.

   With all the new pressures, Osorio says the industry is “at a critical crossroads … We could be in a worse situation today than what we were [in] last year.”